The Decision Book, Mikael Krogerus, Roman Tschaeppeler

In The Decision Book, Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tschaeppeler provide 50 models for strategic thinking. The book covers various decision-making frameworks including the rubber band model (what’s holding me? what is pulling me?), the consequences model (knowledge increases over time, consequences of decisions go down—but the goal isn’t to postpone decisions, because no decision is also a decision; important: make decisions early), stop-rule (say when you’ll turn back—before!), personal performance model (3 axes: want to/have to/able to), and black swan (you can’t derive the future from the past).

Top 3 Learnings:

1. The consequences model: knowledge increases over time, consequences of decisions go down. But the goal isn’t to postpone decisions—because no decision is also a decision. Important: make decisions early. Stop-rule: say when you’ll turn back (before!). This helps avoid continuing down the wrong path when you should have stopped earlier.

2. Personal performance model: 3 axes—want to/have to/able to. This model helps evaluate whether you’re in the right role or situation. The intersection of these three dimensions shows where you can perform best. Black swan: you can’t derive the future from the past. This reminds us that unexpected events can change everything.

3. Rubber band model: what’s holding me? what is pulling me? This model helps identify the forces keeping you in place versus the forces pulling you toward change. Understanding these forces helps make better decisions about when to stay and when to move.

Why and when to read it:

Read this when you’re facing decisions and want frameworks to think through them more clearly. It’s especially valuable for managers, leaders, or anyone who makes strategic decisions regularly. The book provides 50 different models for thinking about decisions, making it perfect for anyone wanting to improve their decision-making or understand different perspectives on common challenges.